szymraszyn

I'm affraid your calculations are wrong from the very beginning.

Please refer to wiki for information on how the calculations are made.

20/45 is NOT the probability of single hit str20 vs str25

Here are the right calculations for this example (for single hit):

0,2*(1-0,25)/((0,2*(1-0,25))+(0,25*(1-0,2))) = 42,857% (NOT 44,444% as in your case).

The slight difference make the case exactly opposite to your conclusions. It is the hc who have almost 51% chance to win (50,94%). Not the wolf.