Attacker's Chance To Win EXCEL Document

Discuss anything related to warbarons.

Attacker's Chance To Win EXCEL Document

Postby tabanli » Fri Mar 08, 2019 4:37 am

I prepared an excel document that calculates chance to win, when 2 Hit attacking 2 Hit defender. Useful when your hero attacks a solo defender and you want this to be a 90% battle.

Enter strength of the attacker and defender it calculates chance to win. I also formed a table based on defender strength what should be your strength to beat a particular defender.

Is there a way we can include this at Wiki page?
tabanli
 
Posts: 273
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2013 4:47 am

Re: Attacker's Chance To Win EXCEL Document

Postby KGB » Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:00 pm

Probably worth doing a 3 hit attacker too so that you can account for the Barb. He's FAR more likely to be doing solo 1v1 attacks than any other hero.

One thing to note in your spread sheet. The game calculations can be off by 1-2% when doing the 1000 simulations. So if your spreadsheet calculates a 90% win (just enough to be sure) the game simulation may end up with 89% and you can lose. So anything *close* is still risky.

KGB
KGB
 
Posts: 2947
Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2010 12:06 am

Re: Attacker's Chance To Win EXCEL Document

Postby tabanli » Mon Mar 11, 2019 4:33 pm

Basic calculation is

Attacker Power Rate (APR)= Strength/(100-Strength)
Defender Power Rate (DPR) = Strength/(100-Strength)

Power Ratio (PR) = APR /DPR
Power ratio also gives approximate equivalence of units
50 strength 2 hit unit is approximately equivalent to 4 units of strength 20 with 2 hits.

3 Hit unit against a 2 hit unit wins 90.3 % if power ration is 8/3 = 2.6666
2 Hit unit against a 2 hit unit wins 90.7 % if power ration is 13/3 =4.3333

We had a lengthy discussion on this with KGB several years ago I am not sure where it is now.
tabanli
 
Posts: 273
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2013 4:47 am

Re: Attacker's Chance To Win EXCEL Document

Postby KGB » Mon Mar 11, 2019 10:07 pm

Tabanli,

It was around 2013. I found it by clicking on your name and from your account info looking at all your posts (200 is so) and going back until I found it.

My point about the percentages is that while your spreadsheet may show a 90.7% win probability when the ratio is 13/3=4.3333 that may not happen in the actual result. The reason is that the 1000 simulations will end up with a win % between 89-92 depending on the result of the simulation. So one time you can be guaranteed success while another you won't be. To over come the results of a bad simulation I suggest anything above 91.5 would be safe.

KGB
KGB
 
Posts: 2947
Joined: Tue Feb 16, 2010 12:06 am

Re: Attacker's Chance To Win EXCEL Document

Postby tabanli » Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:38 am

You are right KGB, this is a theoretical win percentage and it doesn't include statistical fluctuations. I just did it as a guideline. I am playing with Sorcerer in Vortex map and I usually end up in this situations where I really don't want to attack a gold site or a city unless I have 91% chance. Battle simulators also carry the same uncertainty as explained in wiki.
tabanli
 
Posts: 273
Joined: Thu Jan 31, 2013 4:47 am


Return to Game discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests

cron
Not able to open ./cache/data_global.php