Strange "90%" rule occurence

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Re: Strange "90%" rule occurence

Postby SoulMan » Sun Dec 11, 2016 10:40 pm

Just check if roundings of each outcome before comparing sum to 21% / 79% (in 79% rule combat) cuts to 0 all outcomes which occur just 1-4 times during 1000 simulations (i mean if 0,004 = 0,00). That could solve the problem.
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Re: Strange "90%" rule occurence

Postby Seraad » Sun Dec 11, 2016 10:47 pm

Ufff :)
So we came to the conclusion!!!

in MY CASE
A = 78.7%
X+Z = 79%

So A< X+Z so "A" SHOULD NOT BE GRANTED BY THE RULE!

Do you agree now? :)

Please note that I found what is the possible cause of the problem - roundings of probabilities (don't confuse with statistical error which is a problem, but a problem we are aware of)

Regards!
Seraad :)
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Re: Strange "90%" rule occurence

Postby KGB » Mon Dec 12, 2016 6:04 am

Seraad wrote:Ufff :)
in MY CASE
A = 78.7%
X+Z = 79%

So A< X+Z so "A" SHOULD NOT BE GRANTED BY THE RULE!

Do you agree now? :)


Yes, I agree with you it should not be possible.

But I also knew that the game rounds everything to the nearest 1% so 78.7 is going to be rounded up to 79 which is going to ensure an auto-win for the defender. That's why I originally said there was nothing strange in what I saw in your original post (it was a very bad idea for Piranha to post 1 decimal place accuracy when the game itself isn't using that level. The battle screen should just display 79%).

If you want to know why the game rounds, the reason is that the server isn't a computer but rather a database that contains all the games + game rules. Piranha told me long ago that's the reason he has to round things and his simulations are just approximate (the database doesn't actually roll any dice on the server as you would expect it to) because everything is rounded to nearest 1%. This leads to all kinds of strange things like the fact that skeletons can't kill heroes with UL 10+ in L1 ruins even though they technically have the capability to do so (their hit chance is <.005% so it gets rounded down to 0%).

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