Probability display in battles

[SoulMan]

I have noticed that there is battle outcome probability in battles screen. This probability is depended mostly on how many units is fighting and don't give important information i would like know.

I think much better would be if we can know probability of:
if we won the battle - "not losing more units than i actually have lost";
if we lost the battle - "not killing more units than i actually have killed".
We could call this probability just luck, becouse its exactly probability of having current or any of worse outcome.

With this we can cry a bit more about unlucky fights if we lose and we see 12% (can't be under 10% if we lose due to 90% rule) or if we win and we see 0,5%

What do You think about it? I think it's not too complicated to be made.

[piranha]

First, a new feature with probablity was added today:
I've added the ability to see which percentage rule that is active in each battle from today (only ver101). To see it you need to refresh the cache.

The 90% which is actually a 10% rule starts at 10% and eats away the most extreme results on both side of the result spectrum. As armies grow bigger the 10% percentage increases to prevent luck to have too much impact on important big battles. This is debated a lot in another thread so if you have objections to this feature (that has been active for quite a while now) you can search, read through and post your opinion in that thread .

The percentage is display like this: Propability to win: (90%).

Soulman and all the other barons:
Is it a good idea to display the array of results? Like win with 5 units dead 5%, 4 (4%), 3 (2%) or something like that?

[KGB]

Piranha,

I didn't see anything different display wise in any battles I did today when I reviewed them. I hit CTRL-F5 to reload the cache too.

Is it a good idea to display the array of results? Like win with 5 units dead 5%, 4 (4%), 3 (2%) or something like that?

There's no harm in doing it if it's easy work. But the truth is there is nothing meaningful you can get from that information in terms of improving your play in future battles. So it's basically useless.

KGB

[SoulMan]

actually it's not completely useless. If u have a big fight and u meet result that u feel is unlucky - You dont have to calculate that it actually was unlucky becouse You see it. So You have information for the future and if You see that fight was in array 20-30% of "luck" - You can repeat similar decision in the future, and if battle result is not satisfying and You see it was 50-60% - You know that Your math intuition is total fail and You know that You just made bad decision. For me not much help (I can really fast estimate it in my mind with tolerance of 10% even in big battles). But not everyone studied maths or is talented. Anyway i like it because I can check and feel better thanks to confirmation of my fast calculating skills

[piranha]

KGB check your next battle. I posted just after implementing it and battles fought before doesn't have the information saved.
You will need to refresh the cache as well to get the latest javascript file.

I'll add the other feature to our todo and see when I can do that.

[KGB]

Piranha,

I see it now.

I just fought a battle of 8 vs 12 units. The win % for the 2 sides was 56-44 (roughly equal battle). The battle ended with 1 unit surviving for the winning side. Your new percentage listed a number of 95%. What exactly does that mean? I thought there was no rule higher than 90%.

KGB

[piranha]

Yes, that doesn't seem possible with the current code. Which game and battle? Can I check the battle?

[Chazar]

I am really confused now. What does "Probablity to win" actually say?

For example, I had this battle:

Defender: 1 Heavy Cavalry with +5 Wall, at 30/2

Attacker: 3 Elf Archers, 1 Scout, 1 Ranger Lvl1 (no items) at 12/2 (*3), 5/2 and 25/2

The info reads:
Propability to win: (89%)
Attacker: 84.2%
Defender: 15.8%
Battle outcome: 20.7% (Cavalry & 1 Elf died)

Now if I compute the probabilities myself, I compute: 2.377 attackers to survive expected with a standard deviation of 1.988. More precisely, the raw survival rates for each unit are:
1st Elf: 15.6%
2nd Elf: 36.7%
3rd Elf: 55.5%
Scout: 61.7%
Ranger: 84.1%
-------------------------------
Heavy Cavalry: 15.9%

So where does this bold Propability to win: (89%) factor in here?
The 90% rule should affect (not apply at all) this battle!?

Is it simply (100% - [outcome]%), modified by the 90% rule afterwards? If so, then I do not understand battles which ought to have 100% winchance due to 90% rule, as the % is still below 100%?!

[KGB]

Chazar,

So where does this bold Propability to win: (89%) factor in here?
The 90% rule should not apply at all in this battle!?

The 90% rule *always* applies to every battle. However it doesn't mean it actually does anything in that battle. For example 1 Lt If vs 1 Lt Inf is a 50/50 battle. The 90% rule is still in play but in this battle it has no effect since both units can die.

My understanding is that the number Piranha is showing is the value for the 90% rule. It starts at 90% and goes lower depending on how many units and how valuable those units are. In high level hero battles with lots of really good units on both sides it ends up being an 80% rule (ie remove low and high 20% outcomes) so that in such battles both sides lose more units and you get closer to the 'average' outcome to ensure damage is done vs high level stacks.

That said, your battle is such a low level one in terms of number of units and unit value that I am very surprised it's not still at 90%.

KGB

[Chazar]

The 90% rule *always* applies to every battle. However it doesn't mean it actually does anything in that battle.

I am fully aware of that. I was probably using a logician's way of speaking, meaning that the preconditions of the rule were not met in order for the rule to be applicable. While a set of rules remains the same, not all rules are always applied to prove a statement. However, this is beside the point, now that we understand what was meant, i.e. for a specific instance, "rule applies" = "takes effect". I clarified my post now.

That said, your battle is such a low level one in terms of number of units and unit value that I am very surprised it's not still at 90%.

Yes, that was my point. I have battles which have a much bigger difference in outcome which have 90% displayed there. So either the whole thing is buggy, or it does not mean what you conjectured that it means (which I understood as the cut-of point when dices appear).